Dallas Stars playoff picture: How does a 6-2 win over Ducks improve their postseason odds

By Ryan Gagne

Modified Mar 09, 2024 19:45 GMT

The Dallas Stars are one of the dark horse teams that could win the Stanley Cup in June, and almost no one talks about them. Most headlines belong to divisional rivals like Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche or Connor Hellebuyck and the Winnipeg Jets.

Quietly, the Stars are 39-17-9 with the fourth-best record in the NHL, including a 6-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks on Friday night. After building up a 4-0 lead, they rolled into the third period up 5-1, picking up a statement win behind Roope Hintz's three points.

Dallas is only three points behind the Florida Panthers for the top spot and remains ahead of the race for the Central Division title between them, the Jets and the Avalanche.

Dallas Stars

Although Dallas is chasing the Vancouver Canucks for the best record in the Western Conference, it is almost guaranteed to be a playoff team even if it loses its final 17 games. It has a 20-point lead over any wild card teams.

Over the final month of the regular season, the Stars will play seven games against playoff-caliber teams, including one game apiece against the Jets, Avalanche and Canucks, which will impact the division and conference standings.

However, according to MoneyPuck.com, they have the fourth-best odds of making the playoffs at 99.99% and third-best odds (10%) to hoist the Stanley Cup, behind the Canucks and Carolina Hurricanes.

Stars shock hockey world with significant trade deadline acquisition

For months before the NHL trade deadline, defenseman Chris Tanev's name was mentioned as one of the premiere pickups for a contending team needing help on the back end.

Many expected Tanev to end up with the Toronto Maple Leafs or even the Canucks, but the Stars surprised everyone by acquiring the 14-year veteran to give them a plethora of depth on the blue line. Tanev slid into Dallas' second pairing unit and now skates alongside nine-year veteran Esa Lindell.

Tanev is a shot-blocking machine. He had 171 before arriving in Dallas, almost 50 more than Lindell, who had 126 before his new partner's arrival. Meanwhile, on a mediocre Calgary Flames team, Tanev was plus-16, which gives him the fourth-best total in Dallas.

Although no one saw it coming, the Stars general manager James Nill deserves credit for building an under-the-radar team that may have pulled off the season's coup. The Stars were already contenders, who only got better with one deal.

Dallas survives Jake Oettinger's injury and subpar play

Jake Oettinger is one of the NHL's best young goalies, with 180 games of experience at 25 years old. In a season where usual suspects for the Vezina Trophy are having off seasons, other netminders have stepped up their games and are in the running for the award.

Usually, Oettinger is in that conversation, but his numbers are not up to par this season. He has a 25-11-4 record, a .900 save percentage and a 2.95 goals-against average.

He missed an entire month, forcing backup Scott Wedgewood to play every night, and responded with a 2-2-2 record to keep them afloat. Since returning, Oettinger has bounced back with a 14-4-2 record, but his save percentage has dipped to .898%.

Despite their goalie's struggles, Dallas remains the top team in the Central Division and has a legitimate shot at winning the second seed in the Western Conference, giving it a favorable matchup against a wild-card team.

However, it could also lose out on the top spot in the Central, drawing either the Jets or Avalanche in the first round, a matchup worthy of a Conference Final.

If the playoffs started today, Dallas would play the Nashville Predators in the first round. But after this weekend's action, the Vegas Golden Knights could be in that spot, or maybe the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers drop back down into a wild card spot.

Dallas Stars

Either way, the opening round series will be a test for Dallas. Either the Stars will draw a heavyweight contender right out of the gate or lineup against a scrappy team, as they did against the Seattle Kraken last year, who pushed them to Game 7 in the second round.

Overall, the Western Conference is staked with Stanley Cup contending teams, and Dallas is one of the least talked about teams that could waltz through the playoffs and win its first title since 1999.

Thanks to a lineup that includes veterans chasing their first rings, like captain Jamie Benn and Joel Pavelski, and young superstars like Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston, the only thing that can slow the Stars down and prevent them from winning is themselves.