NHL What If: Where would Auston Matthews be if he doesn't extend with the Maple Leafs?

By Ryan Gagne

Modified Apr 09, 2024 19:59 GMT

Auston Matthews scored 60 goals in 2021-22, earning the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award as NHL MVP and taking home the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy for scoring the most goals.

At the time, the then 24-year-old was breaking out and on the verge of cementing his status as one of the greatest goal-scorers ever.

However, in 2022-23, Matthews witnessed a dip in offensive production, only reaching 40 goals (for the fourth time), while his overall point total dropped 21 points from 106 to 85.

Ultimately, the regular season didn't matter as much as the playoffs, where Matthews and his teammates celebrated their first series win in over a decade. A subpar performance in the regular season was less memorable than that first playoff victory.

As the Toronto Maple Leafs headed into 2023-24, they had one goal: securing Matthews to a new deal. At the end of a five-season agreement that pays him a cool $11.6 million a year, the former MVP is due for a pay increase. The outcome of these negotiations will undoubtedly shape the future of the team and keep fans on the edge of their seats.

After signing an extension that made him the highest player in the league at $13.2 million, which kicks in this summer, Matthews then went on to become the second player in the salary cap era to net 65 goals and is on the verge of becoming the first skater since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny to reach 70 in 1992-93.

Imagine the NHL today if Matthews didn't sign his extension in August 2023

In September 2022, the Colorado Avalanche made Nathan MacKinnon the highest-paid player in the NHL, with an annual salary of $12.6 million. To his credit, he won a Calder Trophy (the same as Matthews) and was also part of a Stanley Cup championship in June 2022.

Meanwhile, Connor McDavid is playing out a bargain contract with the Edmonton Oilers that pays him just $12.5 million annually for continuously scoring over 100 points, winning awards, and breaking records with every goal and point.

Despite trailing MacKinnon and McDavid in hardware, Matthews is the best goal scorer of the trio. Because he often carries the Maple Leafs' offense to victories, the team had no choice but to give him more money than MacKinnon and McDavid.

However, if Toronto hadn't given him the keys to the kingdom in August, as he approaches 70 goals for the first time, he would have priced himself out of the city, ultimately shutting down their chances to remain a contender.

If he agreed to a salary increase to $13.2 million, can anyone imagine what that figure would be in April 2024? Believe it or not, someone would have offered him $14 or $15 million to join their lineups, which is the starting figure thrown around when discussing McDavid's upcoming extension in the summer of 2026.

Ultimately, without extending him in August, the Maple Leafs may not have been able to keep William Nylander because he could have opted to pursue free agency. Even though many bulked at his request for a salary over $10 million, he's silenced the doubters with the best season of his career (96 points).

William Nylander and Auston Matthews at the 2024 NHL All-Star Skills Competition

Although no one in Leafs Nation would want to think about it, if this year's team had made it this far into the season without extending these two superstars, there would be more panic than watching the team face off against the Boston Bruins in a Game 7 situation.

However, they would have broken social media if they had led the 2024 free agency class and tested the Maple Leafs' commitment to them by pursuing deals with other clubs.

Thankfully, both Matthews and Nylander got paid, agreeing to deals that best fit their needs and the needs of the Maple Leafs to remain contenders. Unfortunately, tying up so much cash to two players hamstrings them to fill out the roster with high-caliber players.

But, if either player opted to wait out the season and test the open market, two of the core four who are on a quest to break the longest championship drought in NHL history could have gone home to the Arizona Coyotes or Calgary Flames.

As crazy as that statement sounds, the only thing crazier would be the tale of the 2023-24 season without Matthews and Nylander committing to the future.