Toronto Maple Leafs playoff picture: How does a 5-4 loss to Carolina Hurricanes affect their playoff chances?

Modified Mar 17, 2024 16:19 GMT

On Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena, the Toronto Maple Leafs blew a 3-0 and 4-2 lead, eventually falling 5-4 in a shootout to the Carolina Hurricanes.

Thankfully, Toronto secured a point to enhance its chances of remaining a top-three team in the Atlantic Division. Still, they remain entrenched in this position, no matter how they finish.

As the Boston Bruins also won on Saturday, they leapfrogged the Florida Panthers (who lost) in the division, bumping last year's conference champions down into a matchup with the Maple Leafs if the playoffs started today.

For the past few weeks, no one has been able to slow Florida down, giving the Maple Leafs nation an eerily feeling they would draw their Original Six rivals in the opening round. A week ago, the Bruins dismantled Toronto in back-to-back 4-1 victories to assert dominance.

When examining the Atlantic Division on Sunday morning, the Maple Leafs will not catch the Bruins (95 points) or Panthers (94), leaving Toronto securely looked at as the third seed, playing visitors to either Boston or Florida.

With 16 games left, they are seven points ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning and 11 points ahead of the Detroit Red Wings, the top two wildcard teams and Atlantic Division competitors.

Dissecting the Toronto Maple Leafs' final 16 games in 2023-24

The Maple Leafs have Sunday and Monday off before returning to action against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday. Last Thursday, Toronto rolled into Philadelphia and beat up the Flyers 6-2 while head coach John Tortorella was suspended.

The Bruins beat the Flyers 6-5 on Saturday, and the team facing their struggles to secure a playoff spot are just 5-7-2 in their last 14 games. After a brief stop in the nation's capital on Thursday, the Maple Leafs return home for a marquee matchup against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers.

Saturday's Hockey Night in Canada matchup will be a weekend highlight, with McDavid facing off against Auston Matthews for just the second time this season. However, there will be no rest for the weary, as Toronto will travel to Raleigh, NC, for a rematch with the Hurricanes next Sunday.

The Maple Leafs catch a break with three straight contests against non-playoff teams, New Jersey, Washington, and Buffalo. Then, they face the Florida gauntlet of the Panthers and Lightning with two games in three nights to begin their April schedule.

If Toronto survives that stretch, playing decent hockey, they will run into a four-game stretch against Montreal and Pittsburgh and back-to-back with New Jersey. Ultimately, their final test will come at the conclusion of the regular season, with matchups against Detroit, Florida and Tampa Bay.

Who needs to step up for the Maple Leafs to have momentum going into the playoffs?

After scoring his 50th goal in 54 games, many in the hockey community felt that Matthews was the league's MVP. However, his offensive production has dipped significantly in the past month, with just three goals and six points in the past 10 games.

Considering that the offensive game plan runs through him, it is time for Matthews to continue his climb toward 60 now.

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Moreover, the team's leading scorer, William Nylander, tied his career high in points (87) with a goal on Saturday. Since Mitch Marner continues to miss time with a lower-body injury, the Swedish forward will have to put the team on his back, and help offset Matthews' lack of production.

Even though the team is battling significant injuries, goaltending must continue to improve. In the loss to the Hurricanes, Ilya Samsonov finished the evening with a .900 save percentage (36 saves), his worst outing in five games since a loss to Vegas on Feb. 27.

As the de facto number one goalie, Samsonov needs to play a level higher than his season totals, which currently stand at a 3.09 goals-against average and a .889 save percentage.

Overall, the Maple Leafs have found their playoff spot and unless the wheels completely fall off, they will face Boston or Florida in the opening round. Their goal over the last 16 games should be to remain healthy and build confidence.