Businessman Kevin O'Leary talks about recession risk (Image via Getty)

"32 to 55 percent"—Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary shares his honest opinion on how recession risk depends on ongoing tariff disputes

Modified Apr 23, 2025 07:17 GMT

Shark Tank star and investor Kevin O'Leary recently addressed the ongoing discussion surrounding the recession risk. He uploaded a video clip from his CNN interview on Instagram on April 23, 2025. When asked about the likelihood of recession, he stated:

"Well, let me just say that we've been talking about recession now for four years in a row. You may recall forecasters of recessions have been wrong for four years straight. So the probabilities of 32 to 55 percent. That's interesting, but we are not in a recession right now."

The Shark Tank investor further underscored that the outcome hinges on the duration of tariff disputes, particularly with China. Read on to know what else he said during the interview.

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary links recession risk to unresolved global trade disputes

Forecasting uncertainty and the role of trade disputes

Kevin O'Leary addressed the recurring projections of an economic downturn, pointing out that such predictions have yet to be accurate. While acknowledging that probabilities range between 32 and 55 percent, he maintained that the U.S. is not currently in a recession.

Instead, he stressed the influence of external trade dynamics. He explained that the resolution of specific international agreements may impact economic direction.

“It’s widely assumed right now that the European bloc, the British, Swiss, Canadian and Mexican deals will get resolved in relatively short order,” he mentioned.

However, he added that the dispute with China is multifaceted, involving issues such as "IP theft," limitations on market access, and matters related to the World Trade Organization.

U.S. market position and economic resilience

O'Leary noted the global scale of the U.S. economy as a factor in evaluating recession risk. He mentioned that the United States accounts for 26 percent of the world’s gross domestic product and nearly 40 percent of global consumer goods.

He emphasized the country's role in the international market by referring to it as a "large economy." This positioning, he suggested, places the nation in a unique category when examining potential downturns. He also discussed market behavior in the context of economic pressure.

“The markets correct 20 percent all the time, almost every 18 months that happens,” O'Leary stated.

The Shark Tank investor acknowledged that such corrections often stem from factors like trade disputes. He referred to the S&P 500 specifically, noting that these events are not outliers but part of a recurring cycle.

“Why correct is different every time? This is because of scares on tariffs,” he added, marking trade tension as a recurring cause for shifts.

Investor strategy and market opportunities

O'Leary explained that he is not adjusting his investment strategy in anticipation of a recession, stating he is not "investing for a recession" at this time. The Shark Tank star also referenced current valuations in the market, indicating a comparative drop from recent months.

He said that investors now have the opportunity to purchase stocks at a lower price, around "17, 18" compared to "23" just four months ago. He noted that fluctuations in price levels affect how investors engage with market opportunities and that broader patterns have held over time.

“The American economy generates eight to 10 percent returns over the long run,” he stated, pointing to historical return levels as part of the context shaping his strategy.

Shark Tank airs new episodes every Friday at 8 PM ET on ABC. Full episodes are also available for streaming on Hulu.

About the author

Stephany Montero is a Reality TV writer at Sportskeeda with a bachelor's degree in Architecture, bringing a strong eye for detail, creativity, and a structured approach to problem-solving. Stephany has honed her skills by engaging with a diverse company that handled brands in health and medicine, construction, real estate, and various nonprofit foundations. Her work with these brands, particularly a veterans foundation focusing on the needs of military veterans, has taught her empathy and helped her grow into an impactful and confident writer.

Stephany looks up to YouTuber Mr. Beast for his generosity and innovative content and finds him very inspiring. She is also a fan of Kata Mara for her work in animal rescue and welfare. When not following the latest Reality TV drama, Stephany can be found pouring over a book to explore diverse narratives and expand her creativity. She likes discovering new genres and authors as it inspires her writing style and enhances her storytelling skills.

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