Did Olivia Miles forgo $76,000 WNBA opportunity for something better?

By Amlan Sanyal

Modified Apr 02, 2025 07:45 GMT

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Olivia Miles shocked the world of women's basketball on Monday when she announced that she would not be declaring for the WNBA Draft. Even more unusual was her decision to hit the transfer portal for her final year of college eligibility next year.

The 22-year-old Notre Dame Point Guard has been excellent all year, rising up the mock drafts after redshirting the 2023-24 season to recover from knee injury.

In four seasons for the Fighting Irish, Miles averaged 14.2 points, six rebounds, 6.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Although these numbers are impressive, she had her breakout season in 2024-25, when she averaged 15.4 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists. Critically, her three point shooting improved massively, skyrocketing from 22% from downtown in 2022-23 to 40.6% this year.

Miles, who has been enriched by NIL deals from Celsius, Stackwell and Playa Society, made the choice to forgo the WNBA rookie scale contract of $76,000 that is reserved for top picks.

Instead, she will be the prize piece of a bidding war between colleges, vying for a chance to sign her.

Olivia Miles may be enticed to move out of the ACC and will likely get better NIL deals from B1G and SEC schools. However, her draft stock may never be higher. The 5-foot-10 Point Guard was pencilled in as the second pick on most mock drafts, behind Paige Bueckers.

This abrupt declaration has thrown a spanner in the works of WNBA Draft experts who are doubtful that she will be taken as early in 2026 or 2027. Her time at Notre Dame was marred by a clash of styles with fellow star guard Hannah Hidalgo and questions still linger about her sub par defense. Notre Dame HC Niele Ivey was unable to reconcile all these issues and now could be on the hot seat herself.

Nearly a week after UConn star Azzi Fudd announced her decision to skip the WNBA Draft, Miles declined her shot to play in the league as well, presumably for similar reasons as Fudd.

Why is Olivia Miles choosing to stay in college?

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Miles may not be ever selected as highly in the WNBA draft, but she is sure to make a lot more money when she declares eventually. Her decision also showcases the growing leverage college players have in deciding their fates. This instability among the ranks of college players who are on the precipice of turning pro will last only one more year.

If Olivia Miles were selected with the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, she would sign a four-year, $348,198 deal, an average annual value of $87,050, per Spotrac and Front Office Sports. However, signing her rookie scale deal in 2025 would have curbed her maximum earning potential in the pros.

The WNBA is on the verge of renegotiating their CBA, signed in 2020. Nearly every player in the league is set to opt out of their deals after 2025 in search of better pay from 2026.

With WNBA expansion and a higher salary cap looming, rookie scale deals will go up to just above $100,000, no small amount for the uncertain financial realities of women's basketball.

Reacting to her decision on First Take, Shannon Sharpe laid out what he felt was the reason behind Olivia Miles' abrupt decision.

"I'm assuming she wants to play in the WNBA. But with that being said, Stephen A. we had Kiki rice on last night, and she was talking about, you know, a brand and how she building and what she looking for money. She's gonna make more going into this world today." said Sharpe about Olivia Miles"She's gonna make more back by entering this portal and going to sign with some other collegiate team that she would on a rookie contract in the WNBA"

While Sharpe's analysis is logically sound, two more factors that influenced her decision were left undiscussed.

The House vs. NCAA settlement is nearly at the finish line and could benefit collegiate players immensely, allowing revenue sharing of up to $20.5 million as early as next season.

Olivia Miles could also be the ideal point guard to fill the void left by two high profile stars. Bueckers, who declared for the WNBA draft to much fanfare leaves a gaping hole in UConn's starting rotation, that could use someone like Miles. Playing a full season under Geno Auriemma is sure to improve some of Miles' defensive frailties but given the acrimonious associations between the two programs for decades, this could be unlikely.

USC need a Point Guard too, with their star JuJu Watkins projected to be out for the whole year. This would be a neat solution to their problem as the timelines of the two floor generals do not overlap and would avoid a situation like Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles' at Notre Dame.

Olivia Miles has already done the unprecedented by hitting the transfer portal and spurning the WNBA Draft. It remains to be seen if she does it again when she picks her college team.