Jalen Duren scouting report: Why the rebounding machine is a shining beacon on the Detroit Pistons roster

By Ben Pfeifer

Modified Sep 24, 2024 11:30 GMT

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The Pistons drafted Jalen Duren high in the 2022 draft with the expectation he would take time to mature into a viable NBA starter. I hope that’s the mentality they had drafting an 18-year-old center, at the very least. Duren endured a tumultuous second season, as did nearly every other Piston in 2023-24.

Duren’s sophomore season was marked by disparity. On the offensive end, Duren continued to progress nicely despite an actively damaging supporting case. But on the defensive end, Duren heavily contributed to that damage. Duren saw a slight increase in counting stats — 13.8 points, 11.6 boards and 2.4 assists on an excellent 65.3% true shooting percentage.

Jalen Duren stats and why he was a second star in the Detroit Pistons roster

This past season, Duren continued to flash glimpses of his high offensive ceiling. Like many great offensive centers, Duren scores efficiently at the rim on high volume. Last year, Duren made 68.9% of his 9.1 rim attempts per 75 possessions. Of the nine qualifying players last year to attempt nine shots at the rim per 75, Duren’s efficiency ranked third, only trailing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mo Wagner.

He’s an excellent play finisher, soaring above defenses to catch lobs and finish at the rim with his size and enormous 7’5 wingspan despite being a shorter center. Few NBA centers self-create buckets at the rim like Duren can. His ability to generate high-value shots in the paint drives Duren’s offensive value and eventual ceiling as a high-volume, high-efficiency scoring big.

Duren’s height may limit him in some areas. As a driver, his leverage advantage over other centers is notable. Slower-footed bigs have little hope of hanging with Duren, who wins with a powerful first step, long strides and strength. He’s improved his handle in year two, comfortable initiating from the top of the key and winning downhill in isolations and dribble handoffs.

His decision-making isn’t perfect and Duren can still blindly drive into traffic. When quick defenders challenge Duren’s handle, notably on digs, he can be prone to turnovers. Those turnovers aren’t indicative of his passing skill, which improved in year two, Duren’s assist rate nearly doubled from 6.8% as a rookie to 12.3% as a sophomore. His assist-to-turnover ratio improved from 0.79 to 1.14.

In his lone college year, Duren flashed enticing albeit inconsistent playmaking out of the post and the short roll. He’s come so far since then, functioning as a useful dribble handoff hub as a scorer and passer. Duren processes the floor quickly in front of him, locating teammates cutting and spacing in advantage situations.

Duren hasn’t indicated any shooting ability thus far in his career. He’s made one career three dating back to his sophomore season of high school. He’s been willing to attempt mid-range jumpers on low volume, though he hasn’t been particularly efficient (35.2% on mid-range shots) on those shots in his NBA career so far. Duren doesn’t need to shoot threes to remain a positive offensive player given his interior scoring and playmaking, though developing a passable corner jumper certainly would expand his lineup versatility and long-term viability at the four spot.

Jalen Duren's defensive frailties and how can he address them?

Pistons fans have made plenty of Duren’s defense in year two, citing a major regression after a somewhat promising rookie campaign. The numbers support a slight decline in production. His Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (-0.8), block rate (2.3%), steal rate (0.9%), and defensive field goal percentage allowed within six feet (63.1%) all declined from his rookie season. Detroit’s defensive rating was a fraction of a point better with Duren on the floor, but that’s not a statistically significant difference.

What went so wrong? Can Duren correct his defensive issues that plagued him so strongly and become a positive defender in time? The game moved too quickly for Duren to process, especially as a pick-and-roll defender. Duren would often react late in drop or overreact with jumps and stabs. When Duren relies too heavily on his admittedly impressive physical tools, sloppiness often ensues.

When Duren’s positioning and timing fail, his lack of height doesn’t allow him the same margin for error as other primary paint protectors. The NBA is not kind to 6’9 centers regardless of their strength, length or vertical explosion. It’s far too easy for players to shoot over Duren even when he does position himself well.

Duren’s primary defensive position of the future might be as a jumbo four, as he’s a rare lateral mover for a player of his size. Detroit shouldn’t expect Duren to contain guards regularly. He should be able to guard bigger players on the outside, as he’s already comfortable disrupting larger drivers with his incredible tools.

What can Detroit Pistons and Jalen Duren do to achieve maximum success?

That defensive uncertainty complicates the question of his offensive role. How will the Pistons (or Duren’s future team) maximize a dynamic mismatch five-man who may not be able to defend the interior? Duren’s shown enough promise offensively to invest in his future and his individual development there. Can the Pistons fit him snugly with the rest of their core?

Duren isn’t a spacer by any means, missing all of his six career three-point attempts. Even if Duren is best as a defensive four, it’s difficult to justify playing a total non-shooter there, especially on a Pistons team with so many shooting questions already.

Fortunately, Isaiah Stewart theoretically partners smoothly with Duren as a floor-spacing, interior-defending big. If Duren succeeds in Detroit, it will likely be paired with Stewart at least in the short term. Duren already pairs well with Cade Cunningham, as their chemistry in the pick and roll continued to bloom in year two (effectively year one of that pairing given Cunningham’s injury history).

Jalen Duren won’t turn 21 until mid-November. He’ll enter year three younger than a handful of rookies. Duren’s game features notable flaws, some that may not be correctable long term. He’s a unique enough player and a potent enough offensive talent, though, for a rebuilding Pistons team to prioritize to some extent.