Ranking the chances of the 15 men declared for the 2025 Royal Rumble
All stars are not created equal regarding the likelihood of winning the 2025 Men's Royal Rumble. The top names always have the best chances, and this year's match is no different.
About half of the contestants have already declared their intention to participate in the contest. John Cena marked it as the first stop on his retirement tour. CM Punk, Seth Rollins, Drew McIntyre, and Roman Reigns (via Paul Heyman) joined Cena in the match.
Other names have declared participation on episodes of RAW and SmackDown. Who has the best and worst chance of winning? Here are the chances of winning the 2025 Royal Rumble ranked from worst to best.
Please note: This list is based purely on speculation.
#4. The Bottom Five
Chad Gable (15), Penta (14), Shinsuke Nakamura (13), Carmelo Hayes (12), Rey Mysterio (11)
Of all the male stars who've declared for the Rumble, Chad Gable has the worst chance to win. Bookers didn't let him win the Intercontinental Championship, so he won't earn a major title opportunity.
Penta is exciting but way too new in the company to win the Royal Rumble. He'll have an impressive run but will probably be eliminated by a top star. Shinsuke Nakamura is the United States Champ but is rarely booked. It feels like his Rumble victory was decades ago. Carmelo Hayes has been featured but falls against major competition.
Rey Mysterio is always a sentimental favorite but shouldn't be winning major titles or major title shots at this stage of his career.
#3. The Middle Five
Logan Paul (10), Bron Breakker (9), Jey Uso (8), LA Knight (7), Sami Zayn (6)
Logan Paul may think he's World Champ material, but he isn't. He's adapted quickly but lacks the ability to believably represent a major title. Just look at his run as the US Champion.
Bron Breakker enters the match as Intercontinental Champion. If he didn't hold the title, he's chances would put him in the top five. Jey Uso is a fan favorite but has lost every major title opportunity. After all those losses, a Rumble win would be a waste.
LA Knight and Sami Zayn have also challenged for major titles, but Knight was cheated out of both his title opportunities. Due to his mic skills and popularity, he could potentially be a world champion.
Uso is popular, too, but has had many more title shots. Sami Zayn could be the dark horse of the match. If he sticks with his current character, he'll fall just outside the Top Five. If he stops worrying about Roman Reigns and thinks of himself first, he could shock the world.
#2. Former winners who could add another Royal Rumble win
Drew McIntyre (5), Seth Rollins (4)
Four of the five stars with the greatest chance of winning the 2025 Royal Rumble have already done so. CM Punk is the only performer without the accolade. Drew McIntyre is the most recent winner among the 15 names, having won in 2020.
He's been one of the most entertaining stars without a title and missed out on winning the title back several times in 2024. The man he defeated at WrestleMania 40, Seth Rollins, is also atop the favorites this year.
He has built-in feuds with both champions and has killed it in his feuds lately. Despite that, he may not be one of the three biggest favorites to win.
#1. The three stars with the best chance of winning the Royal Rumble
Roman Reigns (3), John Cena (2), CM Punk (1)
Many casual fans want Roman Reigns to win the Royal Rumble because he's supposed to be a good guy now. He only cares about getting the Undisputed Title back. That in and of itself takes away intrigue from winning.
He lost the title less than a year ago, so he doesn't need another title for a long time. John Cena is another sentimental favorite because he is winding down his career. The Royal Rumble will be the first stop on his retirement tour.
If he wins, he'll join 'Stone Cold' Steve Austin as the only two three-time winners in history. Cena would also earn a chance to win his 17th Championship at WrestleMania 41. CM Punk should be the frontrunner for a few reasons.
He was last year's runner-up, has been in two of the best feuds in history, and has never won a match. Punk also hasn't main-evented WrestleMania, something that nearly everyone in the top five has done.