Kiki Iirafen has the tools to be a leader but her NCAA season has been rocky. Fresno State v USC - Source: Getty

Analysing Kiki Iriafen: A step below Paige Bueckers and closer to the competition

Modified Dec 14, 2024 13:30 GMT

Most 2025 WNBA mock drafts feature the same few prospects at the top of the draft, those being UConn’s Paige Bueckers and USC’s Kiki Iriafen. Bueckers is off to a roaring start to the season, but Iriafen’s has been a bit rockier.

She transferred to USC from Stanford this offseason, opting to head south and pair with Juju Watkins. There have been growing pains so far, as Iriafen’s numbers are slightly worse than last year. To this point, she’s averaging 18.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, all lower than last season.

It makes sense that Iriafen would experience growing pains with a new roster.

What can we make of Kiki Iriafen's adjustment going forward?

Her case as a future top pick in 2025 centers around her vaunted interior scoring combined with strong defense. And to begin the season, her offense looks a bit different.

Despite a decrease in scoring volume and a sharp drop in usage (33.4% last year to 27.1% this year), she’s seen her efficiency increase. That’s largely due to her overwhelming interior presence on the glass and in the paint. Last season, Iriafen spent a whopping 45.3% of her possessions posting up. That’s dropped to 17.6% this season, shifting to cutting, rebounding and spotting up.

Much of her efficiency comes from her foul drawing and interior scoring. Her strength, touch and craft as a 6-foot-3 big make her a handful to slow in the restricted area. She’s currently posting a huge 51.2% free-throw rate, making 80% of her free throws.

At the moment, 21.7% of Iriafen’s possessions come via offensive rebounding. While she and Watkins learn to harmonize with each other, Iriafen adds value as a glass cleaner. She doesn’t need plays drawn for her to thrive as an interior scorer, snagging loose change and drawing tons of fouls off of those boards. Her massive 20.3% offensive rebounding rate currently ranks her ninth in the nation:

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She’s a multi-talented interior scorer, perfectly suited for the college game’s post-up centralization. Iriafen whips out drop steps, spins and fadeaways to fool defenders. When defenders cut off her strong right hand, she has no problems twirling back to her left hand to finish softly.

Kiki Iriafen has been in a shooting slump

Iriafen hasn’t converted her mid-range jumpers as she has in the past, currently shooting 11-41 (26.8%) on long 2-pointers. We’d expect to see this regress to the mean somewhat, as Iriafen shot an excellent 45.9% (83-181) on those same shots last season.

While Iriafen is an excellent interior player, most elite modern bigs — A’ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart, Napheesa Collier — all excel on the perimeter. This isn’t Iriafen’s comfort zone, as she’s struggling to even extend a bit more outside this season. She hasn’t been a 3-point shooter in the past, as Iriafen made 2 of her 6 3-point attempts last season. She’s already taken 5 triples this year, though, possibly indicating a willingness to expand her range. Her great touch and free-throw shooting are also positive indicators for eventual shooting growth.

Playmaking has been a challenge for Iriafen to begin this season, averaging more turnovers than assists (0.6 assist-to-turnover ratio) and a low 9.4% assist rate. Her assist rate (18.8%) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.0) were higher last season at Stanford but still not as high as you’d hope for a primary creator.

Iriafen sports solid vision out of the post, but doesn’t make many high-end passes and settles for lots of ill-advised shots early in the clock. She’s a talented tough shotmaker, but Iriafen’s reliance on these difficult jumpers and post chances may worry some WNBA teams for her ultimate translation to the pros.

While Iriafen’s offensive translation may be cause for some worry, her defensive translation is far more solid. At 6-foot-3 with a reported 6-foot-8 wingspan and fantastic athletic tools, Iriafen profiles as a strong combo big defender at the WNBA level. Her block numbers are a bit lower than last season (1.8% block rate vs 2.2%), but she’s still shown her ability to impact shots in the paint, especially as a post defender.

USC star's mobility will help her be a defensive beacon in the WNBA

She’s incredibly mobile for her size, boasting excellent lateral quickness, fluidity and excellent hands. That helps contribute to her career-high 2.4% steal rate, plucking unsuspecting handles and smothering offensive players at the point of attack.

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Early this season, Iriafen is fouling less than ever (2.5 fouls per 40 minutes). She rarely makes critical defensive errors, and her sound positioning and strength allow her to muck off off-ball actions. Iriafen may never win a Defensive Player of the Year trophy, but she sports all the tools necessary to develop into a great pro defender for many years.

Kiki Iriafen’s defense will help her sell WNBA teams on her floor. Iriafen’s defensive versatility, rebounding and interior scoring touch all help boost her lowest-end outcomes. It’s tough to see a path where she doesn’t at least end up a solid pro, adding value as a complementary scorer and defender. But teams picking atop the draft like LA, Dallas and Chicago will consider ceiling above all else.

We saw the value a prospect like Angel Reese brought with her offensive rebounding and defense, even with other parts of her game remaining unpolished. Teams could view Iriafen’s path to stardom as similar to hers. Assuming she can return to top form on the offensive end, seeing Iriafen off the board as high as two wouldn't be shocking.

Can Iriafen develop into a high-usage primary scorer at the WNBA level? She’ll likely need to expand her game to add more shooting, ball-handing, or playmaking. If she does land in LA as many mocks project, she’ll have Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson to play off of. Even if Iriafen can’t develop into a star, whichever team drafts her will be acquiring a solid contributor for their foundation.